Over the past couple of months I have spoken about the drivers of volatility in Global share markets and our view that we should continue to expect higher volatility and more modest gains than have been achieved over the past three years. Whilst those drivers are still there, market concerns over China’s GDP growth and the timing of the Fed’s rate increase seem to be moderating, with markets generally increasing from their lows of late September. Our view is that broad based economic improvements across major economies will continue to support indices, whilst concerns over emerging market growth and resource prices are risks.
When share markets are volatile Australian investors’ minds inevitably turn to property, generally residential; so this month I thought that I would spend a little time discussing the question “Is the bubble about to burst in Australian Residential Property?”
Firstly it is important to look at what drives residential property prices and this is simply Supply v’s Demand; Supply is determined by existing stock, less demolitions, plus dwelling construction and Demand is determined by population growth, births, deaths, and net migration. This Supply Demand equation is referred to as the property cycle paradigm and/or the seven (not literally) year cycle.
Generally speaking Australian house prices are expensive, arguably overpriced; according to the 2015 Demographia Housing Affordability Survey the median multiple of house prices to household income is 6.4 times in Australia versus 3.6 in the US and 4.7 in the UK. Affordability is difficult and household debt is high in Australia with household debt as a (%) percentage of household disposable income increasing from around 50% in 1990 to around 160% in 2015 (source ABS, RBA, AMP Capital).
It is important to note that Australian property is not one amorphous market but rather it is made up of a range of markets geographically; over the past three years we have seen a surge in prices in Sydney and Melbourne (approx. 17% and 13% respectively) whilst prices in the bulk of the rest of the country have been subdued. Where to from now? Slowing growth is likely to occur in Sydney and Melbourne due to affordability; reduced lending to property investors; and falling consumer sentiment, where we are already seeing auction clearances reduce from around 80% to 60%. Opportunities may continue to exist in other centres however, Perth and Darwin are likely to continue to suffer as a result of the winding back of mining investment.
The above is simply a broad overview, what it does indicate is that when considering an acquisition considerable research is required into the demographics of not only the city but also the suburb in which the person is considering a property purchase.
Long term, residential property and Australian shares have produced similar returns and so there is a place for both in a portfolio; from an investment perspective we subscribe to a broadly diversified portfolio not only in Australian but also Global assets, so we caution clients against having too much exposure to any single asset class. As with any investment decision one should seek advice from your professional adviser before investing!
Important note: While every care has been taken in the preparation of this article, MMT Financial Solutions (ABN 40 147 903 526, AFSL 458115) makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in it including, without limitation, any forecasts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This article has been prepared for the purpose of providing general information, without taking account of any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. An investor should, before making any investment decisions, consider the appropriateness of the information in this article, and seek professional





